Politics Into Investment Strategies

Well, I think much an executive should do. The first thing an executive should do is to recognize that these 10 - and 20 years scenarios long can be thrown out the window, the expense, because it is impossible to predict what kind of distance the future. They have a great time to spend on scenarios for the 12, 18, 24 months, but they should recognize that the magnitude of possible outcomes is much greater than before. So, these fat tails, the size of these fat tails grown. The magnitude of the impact they may have been grown.

We are in the midst of a global economic crisis now. And there will be serious social unrest in emerging markets around the world. But usually they do not strike at the same time, an economic crisis. They are lagging indicators to ecommerce website. They are 12, 18 months to really play through individual savings when the economy begins to slow down seriously. So if you are a leader and you have positions in countries like Turkey, Ukraine, Thailand, Argentina, even Russia, you must recognize that in the short to medium term, the range of possible outcomes in these countries is much greater than before.

First, in such an environment, diversification can really help. I mean, there are many companies out there to believe that [method]: "We are in China, and only in China. We take a significant commitment. "But there is a huge bushy tail around both Chinese growth long term and, more importantly, whether or not Western companies can benefit from the growth of China.

There is also the issue of corporate structure. Organizational Structure of a lot can be an effective filter, the use of this information useful then to actually work its way through the actual process of decision within the organization. Yet as a political scientist, he is funny, I'm not a management consultant, but before the point you can made a decision more useful, you really understand what is happening. And much of the fat tail is not really part because corporate management consulting have been so bad that. So they just failed to focus on those variables that I think we must first return to basics and say: "OK, what is political risk? What kinds of risks there, the macro to micro, social revolutions, terrorism, geopolitical conflicts and regulatory policies and nationalization and how can we identify and how can we understand where we might be facing them?